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«Jonathan Haskel Imperial College Business School, CEPR, Ceriba, IZA and UK-IRC Keywords: copyright, IP, innovation, knowledge, investment, ...»

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12.1. ΣP(X)X, Upstream Input Costs (ASHE). Miscellaneous Art One method of estimating investment in this group of diverse assets is to estimate of the input costs to creation, using ASHE data on the relevant creative occupations. Additionally we have some detailed industry data from the ABI which can be used to generate a reasonable proxy for a factor, γ, to account for overheads.

Unfortunately we do not have information on the proportion of inputs that go into asset creation rather than final goods for consumption. To illustrate how this is a problem, consider choreography: of all artists, how many are involved in the creation of long-lived choreographed routines, and what percentage of their labour input is devoted to such creation compared with instruction or performance. We would speculate that instruction and performance takes up the majority of the time of most choreographers giving rise to potential over-estimation of asset creation using this method. It may be however that this is somewhat made up for if choreographers (or other artists) are not well represented in ASHE, which would cause an under-representation of N and therefore wN.

Table 11 below presents the list of occupations that we can identify from ASHE and consider to be involved in the creation of artistic originals not already counted elsewhere.

Table 11: Miscellaneous Artwork, Occupations involved in asset creation

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Note to table: we ensure that no occupations already used in the calculation of investment in other intangible assets are used, including managers. Workers recorded in industries dominated by the public sector (Public Admin & Defence (L), Education (M) and Health (N)) are also excluded so our final estimates are reflective of the market sector.

ABI data on employment and non-employment costs are available for ‘Photographic Activities’ (74.81), ‘Other Artistic and Literary Creation’ (92.139) and ‘Dance Halls and Dance Instructor Services’ (92.341). Although these industries do not provide an exact match to the activities we are looking to estimate, they should provide a reasonable proxy for overheads in asset creation. Using data for 1999-2007 provides us with an average estimate for γ of 2.87. Applying this factor to the data on wage-bills provides us with the results displayed in Figure 33.

Figure 27: Miscellaneous Artwork (PxX using data on labour input from ASHE and the ABI). CP £mns Source: ONS, ASHE

12.2. P(R)R, Downstream Rental Payments. Miscellaneous Art The best approach for estimating investment in such assets would be the use of data on royalty payments for their use, thus avoiding many of the conceptual and practical pitfalls that

we have discussed so far. The use of royalties data would mean that:

- by definition ‘valuables’ would be excluded, since they are non-productive and held as stores of value. Royalties would only be paid for assets that are being actively used in production

- by definition, all estimates of investment would be copyright-protected

- only goods with a service life of longer than one year would be included. Any good that generated royalties for less than one year could be excluded, thus removing the problem in distinguishing between the production of assets and consumption goods.

Theoretically it should be possible to generate valid estimates of GFCF in photography and artwork using data from the Design Artists Copyright Society (DACS) and the major photography libraries e.g. Corbis. Whilst it was our intent to make use of such data for this report, due to legal and data protection issues outside of our control, we have not been able to access this data in time for inclusion in this report. We would recommend that such sources be used in the future, including for official National Accounts estimates, where the exclusion of such assets ignores a significant amount of investment activity.

12.3. P(N)N, Upstream Output. Miscellaneous Art Figure 34 contains gross output data for numerous industries relevant to this asset category.

However, we have no data on international payments/receipts to adjust these series.

Additionally, as mentioned in the context of literary originals, we need to be careful in terms of meeting the SNA capitalisation criteria. Taking the example of photography, revenues in the photography industry are largely going to comprise of payments for final consumption from Households, and payments for the intermediate consumption of short-lived goods. This issue applies to output in all other industries considered in the chart below.

Figure 28: Miscellaneous Art, Gross Output (CP £mns)

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4,000 1,500 3,000

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Note to figure: ONS published data, aggregated from the ABI. Data for: Photography (74.81); Live theatrical presentations (92.31/1); Other Artistic & Literary Creation (92.31/9) & Dance halls and Dance instructor services [excluding licensed clubs] (92.34/1). Other Artistic & Literary Creation includes the activities of a wide variety of artists from authors to painters to songwriters.

The above series do not include any data for museums or galleries. Consideration of such activity is highly problematic in a practical and conceptual sense. Additionally these organisations are largely outside of the market sector, which is what we are primarily interested in, and so we ignore them here.

Although the above chart tells us that these activities are significant in terms of output, we have little to no information on the proportion of output that is asset creation compared to what is intermediate or final consumption. This would require a large volume of detailed information on for instance: the value of copyrighted images with a long-service life compared to those with short service lives; or the amount of revenue earned from the rental of choreographed routines compared to that earned from recreational dance instruction. Such data are unavailable.

12.4. P(Y)Y, Downstream Output. Miscellaneous Art

For reasons discussed, estimation of upstream asset creation for these assets is difficult.

Estimation of downstream revenues from the wide range of users, regardless of their residency or location, is even more problematic. Therefore no estimates for this measure are presented in this report.

13. Summary and Evaluation of Final Results: by Asset Before presenting a summary of our final results, it is worth saying a little bit more on their features and any remaining shortcomings.

a) Film:

Our preferred estimates are based on the production costs of all UK films since 1991, with ownership shares calculated using microdata for each individual film from a custom-built dataset, in line with the sum of costs approach recommended by the Eurostat Taskforce and the OECD. Our measure is a step forward from the official estimates, which are currently based on just a small sample of UK-owned productions.

It could be argued that since we base our data on production costs, we do not take account of the upstream market power that arises from ownership of a unique and protected asset. To do so, would require extensive information on revenues, including that from DVD sales and rentals, merchandise, foreign translation, television broadcasting as well as the standard box office streams. Whilst we do have some partial information on those revenue streams, firstly they are too limited to produce reliable estimates, and secondly we already make use of them to impute data for production budgets for films where data on production costs are missing.

Estimates based on our preferred method are compared with estimates from alternative methods as well as the official ONS series in Table 12.

b) TV & Radio:

For this asset the sum of costs approach is recommended by the Eurostat Taskforce and the OECD, and we too use it as our preferred method. However, we still feel that there may still be some potential undercount of investment in TV & Radio originals.

First, there is some international collaboration in the production of stock originals for TV and Radio. Consider the hypothetical but realistic example of a commissioned production created in the UK independent sector, where the funding is provided by a UK PSB and, say, a US television network. In return for the provision of funding, the UK PSB receives the rights to broadcast the original in the UK for x years or N broadcasts. Likewise, the US network receives similar rights for broadcast in the US. However, the independent production company retains the rights to commercialise the asset in all other international markets, as well as longer-term rights (for DVDs etc.) in the UK and the US. By only counting the funds provided by the UK PSB, we are missing additional investments (revenues) made in the independent sector for (from) the right to exploit the underlying asset in the medium- to longterm.

Second, our estimates are built from the costs of specific genres. In reality producers of UK originals (stock programmes) will rent from their own capital stock (both tangible and intangible) during the production process. For example, from their stock of buildings where sets are located, or from the machinery and equipment used in production. Therefore the final estimates should include some element of capital compensation, P(K)K as a component of ΣP(X)X, to allow for this. Our data, based on reports produced by OFCOM, do not include this element.

Third, we have shown that the decision on whether to estimate from the side of inputs or revenues has important implications for the final estimate. That is, data on revenues will implicitly include output generated from the monopoly power granted by the IPR. Data on costs will not. We are fairly ambivalent on the conceptual issue of whether the mark-up, μ, should be included in the final estimates. 45 However, we do feel that it is important that the term is treated consistently, across asset categories and also across countries. At the moment this is not the case.

Fourth, estimates for TV & Radio are based on a definition of what constitutes a long-lived (stock) original. This excludes investment in rights to broadcast sports events, as it is considered that such rights have a relatively short service life. It is clear that broadcasts of certain events do have a much longer service life than just one year. However, there would appear to be an element of randomness, that is at least determined by the final results rather than the event itself, in which broadcasts have a long service life. Since our estimates are based on costs and it would certainly not be correct to include the costs for all sports productions, we follow the convention and exclude sports rights for practical reasons. 46 As well as sports, other types of ‘flow’ programmes also appear to have some longevity, hence the clip archives maintained and used by broadcasters. However, again, whist conceptually Based on current conventions and the measurement of R&D on a costs basis, an assumption that μ=1 appears sensible.

It may be possible to generate estimates for TV & Radio based on revenues rather than costs. In this case it would be possible to use revenues earned from sports genre DVDs in the estimation.

these should be included, accurate measurement would be impractical. Likewise, it may be that there is longevity in more radio productions than we have considered.

Fifth, our data do not include estimates for multi-channel satellite and cable broadcasters, being based on official OFCOM data: data on investments in the creation of UK stock originals by these platforms are difficult to obtain information from.

Estimates based on our preferred method are compared with estimates from alternative methods as well as the official ONS series in Table 12.

c) Books:

The approach recommended by the Eurostat Taskforce and the OECD is that based on the NPV of future receipts from users of the asset/IPR. It is also our preferred method in the case of Literary Originals.

Unfortunately due to events beyond our control we were unable to gain access to UK microdata on royalties in time for the completion of this report. Accurate estimation would have required data on the full stream of revenues in terms of the types of rights and for the complete time-series. Limited data would be of little use i.e. estimation of the value of based solely on primary rights would be misleading and the basis of the methodology relies on a full revenue stream correctly discounted. Likewise, use of data for a limited sample of years would not allow for accurate accumulation of revenues or analysis of revenue schedules.

Estimates based on our preferred method are compared with estimates from alternative methods as well as the official ONS series in Table 12.

d) Music:

The approach recommended by the Eurostat Taskforce is that based on the NPV of future receipts. It is also our preferred method in the case of Music Originals.

Unfortunately due to events beyond our control we were unable to gain access to UK royalties data in time for the completion of this report. Accurate estimation would have required data on the full stream of revenues for the same reasons given above for books originals.

We have however estimated an approximation of the asset value created in 2009 in a steadystate model. Modelling investment in long-lived music as if in steady-state appears particularly inappropriate in light of the current industry conditions and dynamics. This exercise was carried out to demonstrate the potential order of a measure based on revenues and should not be considered a representative estimate of UK investment in Music Originals.

Estimates based on our preferred method are compared with estimates from alternative methods as well as the official ONS series in Table 12.

e) Miscellaneous Artwork:

Due to the range of potential goods that could be included in this category, and the lack of data availability, we consider our estimate to be an undercount of asset creation in this area.

Summary Estimates based on our preferred method are compared with estimates from alternative methods as well as the official ONS series in Table 12.

Table 12: GFCF by asset and method, CP estimates for 2007

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