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«Bernd W. Kubbig Kontakt: Deutsche Stiftung Friedensforschung (DSF) Am Ledenhof 3-5 D-49074 Osnabrück Fon: +49.(0)541.600.35.42 Fax: ...»

-- [ Page 1 ] --

Missile Defence in

the Post-ABM Treaty Era:

The International State of the Art

Bernd W. Kubbig

Kontakt:

Deutsche Stiftung Friedensforschung (DSF)

Am Ledenhof 3-5

D-49074 Osnabrück

Fon: +49.(0)541.600.35.42

Fax: +49.(0)541.600.79.039

www.bundesstiftung-friedensforschung.de

info@bundesstiftung-friedensforschung.de

Bernd W. Kubbig

Hessische Stiftung Friedens- und Konfliktforschung (HSFK)/

Peace Research Institute Frankfurt (PRIF) Leimenrode 29 D-60322 Frankfurt am Main Fon: +49.(0)69.959.104.36 Fax: +49.(0)69.558.481 E-mail: kubbig@hsfk.de © 2007 Deutsche Stiftung Friedensforschung Gestaltung, Satz und Herstellung: atelier-raddatz.de und DSF Druck: Günter-Druck GmbH, Georgsmarienhütte Alle Rechte vorbehalten.

Printed in Germany 2007

Spendenkonto der Deutschen Stiftung Friedensforschung:

Sparkasse Osnabrück, Konto 1230, BLZ 265 501 05 Table of Contents Page Abstract

Zusammenfassung

1. The Research Design: Comparing Missile Defence Policies of 16 Democracies

Missile Defence − Still Relevant, Still Controversial

1.1 The Comparative Approach − Reflecting the Specifics and the 1.2 Complexity of MD Policies

Major Findings: The Varying Behaviour of Democracies and its Explanation − 2.

The Delicate State of Missile Defence

First Finding: ABM Treaty Termination − Grudgingly Accepted, Cautiously 2.1 Welcomed, With Resentments Alive in Russia

2.2 Second Major Finding: An American Territorial Umbrella has Strong Supporters, But is not Broadly Legitimised

2.3 Third Major Finding: Almost All Democracies Share a Consensus on TMD for the Protection of Troops/Small Areas

2.4 Fourth Major Finding: Missile Defence as a Viable Response to WMD Proliferation Remains, Despite Some Variance, All in All Limited

2.5 There was Hardly a Broad MD Debate in Most Democracies (With no Difference to Russia)

Preliminary Remarks − Normative Assumptions

2.5.1 No Broad Discourse Across the Board − Limited Participation of the Public.... 23 2.5.2 Hurdles for MD Debates − Structural and Situational Ones

2.5.3 Governments, Security Establishments and the MD Issue Area − A 2.5.4 Tendency Towards Autonomy at the Expense of Transparency and Parliamentary Control

2.5.5 Congruence of Public Opinion and Government Decisions: The Cases of Canada, South Korea, and Japan

2.6 Sixth Major Finding: The US has Structured the Entire MD Issue Area to a Considerable Degree

2.7 Seventh Major Finding: The Compared MD-policies of 16 Democracies Reveal a Combination of Four Major Determinants

2.7.1 Maintaining Their Foreign Policy Identity by Distancing Themselves from the US: Canada, South Korea and (in Part) Russia

2.7.2 Traditional Civilian and Trading Powers (Mostly in Transition) with a Strong Atlanticist Foreign Policy Orientation: Denmark, the Netherlands, Germany, and Japan

2.7.3 The Three New Democracies in Europe: ‘America First!’ for Poland and the Czech Republic, with Equidistance to the US and Europe in Hungary............. 33 2.7.4 The Two European Nuclear Powers Great Britain and France: Missile Defence Cuts Across Traditional Positioning Towards the US

2.7.5 Two Traditional US Allies in Conflict Regions and a Likely Strategic Partner:

Turkey, Israel, and India

3. Prospects and Problems Ahead

4. Research Perspectives

Appendix

List of Abbreviations

List of Project-related Publications

Bulletins of the Project Group ‘Raketenabwehrforschung International’

Bibliography

DSF Forschung is published irregularly. The authors alone are responsible for the content of the publications.

Abstract

1 The main emphasis of this report is on the domestic scenery with respect to both comparing and explaining the individual missile defence policies of 16 democracies. These 16 case studies give answers to the following three research questions: 1) How the missile defence (MD) policy in each country has developed as a response to the proliferation problem in the context of the broader security and foreign policy; 2) how it is located in the overall domestic setting and 3) how the MD policy can be explained.

The seven major findings are the following:

• The unilateral termination of the Anti-Ballistic Missile Treaty by the Bush administration in 2002 was by all major states grudgingly accepted and cautiously welcomed, with resentments alive in Russia.

• An American territorial umbrella has few strong supporters and is not broadly legitimised, as is shown by continuous criticism in several democracies.

• Almost all democracies share a consensus on theatre missile defence for the protection of troops/small areas.

• Missile defence is a firm part of military thinking – but its relevance as a viable response to the proliferation of weapons of mass destruction remains, despite some variance, all in all limited.

• Due to several structural and situational reasons, a broad debate on missile defence has hardly taken place in most of the democracies (with no difference in Russia). The analytical insights into the domestic settings reveal a variety of substructures and political/strategic cultures, featuring in many cases a strong executive branch, a hardly controlling parliament, and a congruence of public opinion and government policies in three cases.





• The United States is almost non-comparable and remains second to none. As the dominant power it has structured the entire missile defence issue area to a considerable degree by applying its unique range of foreign policy instruments.

The security concept of the almost unconstrained and ambivalent hegemon with both benign and imperial aspirations is no longer treaty-based in the missile defence field.

• Comparing the explanatory factors for the paramount missile defence-related

issues of the 16 democracies reveals a combination of four major determinants:

1) foreign policy identity; 2) domestic power constellations; 3) the United States as an external driver and 4) threat perceptions.

What accounts for the variety of missile defence policies of the democracies? In a nutshell, it is neither their formal status as a democracy, nor their different quality as a democratic country within the spectrum of the stable, new, and deficient democracies in the cases of Turkey and even more so of Russia. The two traditional explanatory factors – the role of 1 I would like to thank Ms. Shiva Behzad, Axel Nitsche and Ms. Susanne Pihs for their valuable assistance. This report summarises the results of the 16 case studies by 17 scholars from 14 countries for the Special Volume of ‘Contemporary Security Policy’ on ‘The Domestic Politics of Missile Defence’, Vol. 26, No. 3 (December 2005), edited by Bernd W. Kubbig and Axel Nitsche, with contributions of J. Marshall Beier, Mark Smith, Radek Khol, Jørgen Dragsdahl, Ronja Kempin/Jocelyn Mawdsley, András Rácz, Philip Everts, Rafal Domisiewicz/Sławomir Kamiński, Isil Kazan, Rajesh Rajagopalan, Reuven Pedatzur, Taku Ishikawa, Alla Kassianova, Byung-joon Ahn as well as Bernd W.

Kubbig/Axel Nitsche.

military alliances such as NATO and the geographical/geopolitical position of the democracies examined – are secondary. In the final analysis it is the combination of the foreign policy orientations in connection with the particular domestic power constellations (in some cases strong economic and bureaucratic interests), the role of the US and the relevance of perceived threats that account for either a sceptical/critical or a supportive policy (threats defined mostly as missiles from non-democratic adversaries, but to a lesser extent as the US menacing the basic foreign policy orientations of other democracies).

The research report finally lists several major problems ahead associated with missile defence systems. To mention two of them: In the case of basing radars or interceptors on Central European territory, Russia in particular would be affected. What if Moscow chooses to obstruct those kinds of missile defence plans, establishes stronger ties with Beijing, intensifies its arms trade in the rocket area with countries of concern, bypasses arms control agreements, continues to intensify its arms build-up and aims its nucleartipped missiles at Polish strategic targets? In addition, ecological and social risks are probably associated with the interception of an atomic, biological or chemical warhead which falls on European territory.

The report concludes with research perspectives. They focus on the conflict potential to be assessed in view of rising nations (economically and technologically) and in terms of their ‘rising’ rocket and space-faring capabilities. Here, Brazil, China, India, and Iran are the case in point. Finally, the research question is raised: What role is missile defence likely to play in the context of a ballistic missiles free zone? Would missile defence enhance or hamper such a zone? It is finally suggested that the pool of expertise presented in the Special Volume of ‘Contemporary Security Policy’ on ‘The Domestic Politics of Missile Defence’ 2 would be a solid base for the establishment of a multilateral study group on a rocket free zone in the Broader Middle East/Persian Gulf region.

2 For follow-up analyses on the developments see PRIF’s internet project ‘Ballistic Missile Defense Research’, available at: http://www.hsfk.de/abm.

Zusammenfassung 3 Der Fokus dieses Forschungsberichtes liegt auf der gesellschaftlichen Debatte in 16 Demokratien, deren jeweilige Raketenabwehrpolitik miteinander verglichen und erklärt werden soll. Die einzelnen Fallstudien möchten die folgenden drei Forschungsfragen beantworten: 1) Wie hat sich die jeweilige Raketenabwehrpolitik im Kontext des umfassenderen außen- und sicherheitspolitischen Konzepts als Antwort auf das Proliferations-Problem entwickelt? 2) Wie ist Raketenabwehr in den Gesamtzusammenhang der politischen Diskussionen und Kräftekonstellationen des jeweiligen Landes einzuordnen?

3) Wie lassen sich die auf die ersten beiden Fragen gefundenen Antworten erklären?

Die sieben zentralen Resultate lauten:

• Die unilaterale Aufkündigung des Raketenabwehrvertrages durch die BushAdministration im Jahre 2002 wurde von allen einflussreichen Staaten mit Skepsis zur Kenntnis genommen, aber letztlich akzeptiert. Deutlichere Vorbehalte gegenüber der US-Entscheidung lassen sich bis heute in Russland finden.

• Von den analysierten Staaten befürworten nur einige einen amerikanischen Schutzschild. Er steht deshalb – wie die heftige Kritik in einer Reihe von Demokratien zeigt – auf keiner soliden Legitimationsbasis.

• Fast alle Demokratien teilen den Wunsch, vor allem Soldaten bei Auslandseinsätzen durch ein taktisches Raketenabwehrsystem schützen zu wollen, wenn diese Aktivitäten in einem Umfeld mit feindlichen Massenvernichtungsmitteln durchgeführt werden.

• Die Raketenabwehrpolitik ist ein bedeutendes Element im sicherheitspolitischen Denken der untersuchten Staaten. Als Antwort auf die Gefahr der Proliferation von Massenvernichtungswaffen werden die Raketenabwehrsysteme – trotz einiger Unterschiede zwischen den betrachteten Staaten – aber kaum gesehen.

• Auf Grund von strukturellen und situativen Gründen konnte sich eine breite Debatte über die Aspekte einer Raketenabwehrpolitik ausnahmslos nur sehr bedingt entwickeln. Die Analyse des politischen Gesamtkontextes, in dem der jeweilige Diskurs ausgetragen worden ist, unterstrich die Bedeutung der auf Länderebene unterschiedlich ausgeprägten politisch-strategischen Kulturen. Sie gründete in vielen Fällen auf der starken Stellung der Exekutive und einem Parlament, das seiner Kontrollfunktion nur begrenzt nachkam. In nur drei Fällen war die öffentliche Meinung mit der Position der Regierung deckungsgleich.

• Die Vereinigten Staaten stellen eine Ausnahme dar, sie sind mit den anderen Ländern kaum zu vergleichen. Als Supermacht hat Washington die unterschiedlichsten Instrumente seiner Außenpolitik eingesetzt und somit die gesamte Raketenabwehrdebatte zu einem beträchtlichen Grad geprägt. Der fast entfesselte und ambivalente Hegemon, der seine Sicherheitspolitik sowohl mit 3 Dieser Bericht fasst die Ergebnisse der 16 Fallstudien von insgesamt 17 Experten aus 14 Ländern zusammen, die in dem Schwerpunktband ‘The Domestic Politics of Missile Defence’ der begutachteten Fachzeitschrift ‘Contemporary Security Policy’, Vol. 26, Nr. 3 (Dezember 2005), erschienen sind, welcher von Bernd W. Kubbig und Axel Nitsche herausgegeben wurde. Der Sammelband umfasst Beiträge von J. Marshall Beier, Mark Smith, Radek Khol, Jørgen Dragsdahl, Ronja Kempin/Jocelyn Mawdsley, András Rácz, Philip Everts, Rafal Domisiewicz/Sławomir Kamiński, Isil Kazan, Rajesh Rajagopalan, Reuven Pedatzur, Taku Ishikawa, Alla Kassianova, Byung-joon Ahn und Bernd W.

Kubbig/Axel Nitsche.

gutmütigen als auch imperialen Mitteln durchführt, will sich nicht länger durch Verträge einschränken lassen.

• Ein Vergleich zwischen den in den Fallstudien herausgearbeiteten Erklärungsfaktoren für die jeweilige Raketenabwehrpolitik ergibt eine Kombination von vier zentralen Handlungsursachen: 1) Außenpolitische Identität (die jeweilige außenpolitische Orientierung); 2) die politischen Machtverhältnisse innerhalb des Staates (in einigen Fällen existieren starke ökonomische und bürokratische Interessen); 3) die USA als äußerer Motor; und 4) die Bedrohungen, die primär von nicht-demokratischen Ländern ausgehen.

Sowohl der formale Status aller Länder als Demokratie als auch die Unterschiede in der Qualität der demokratischen Verfasstheit – die Türkei und Russland nehmen als defizitäre Demokratien einen Sonderstatus ein – scheiden als mögliche Erklärungen aus. Die Erklärungskraft des Allianzfaktors (sprich der Eingliederung in militärische Bündnisse wie der NATO) und der geographischen Lage eines Staates sind sekundär.

Der Forschungsbericht nennt schließlich eine Reihe von Problemen, die im Zusammenhang mit den Raketenabwehrsystemen zu erwarten sind: Zum einen die Reaktion



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